Dairy APRIL 2000 Reproduction During Hot Weather Wesley S. Farmer, Extension Specialist Mississippi State University Heat stress has a detrimental effect on nearly every body function of the lactating dairy cow. We are all very aware of the losses in milk production and reduced reproductive efficiency. Even with our best efforts of cooling cows during periods of hot weather, many producers simply quit using artificial insemination and some turn the bulls in with the cows. The two main reproductive problems that all dairy herds experience during heat stress are poor heat detection and lowered conception rates. Heat Detection In a traditional artificial insemination program, heat detection is paramount in importance to getting cows pregnant. Standing heat is the visible sign by which we estimate ovulation and time insemination to fertilize the egg. The ability to detect cows in heat, or better yet, estimate when ovulation occurs, is the first challenge to successfully impregnating cows in hot weather. And, since visible standing heat duration is drastically shortened because of the heat stress, the challenge become even greater. Some dairy producers opt for turning bulls in with the herd and allowing them to do all of the heat detection. However, the same heat stress that affects your cows will effect the bulls. A bullís activity and libido is lowered during heat stress. Add to this the shortened estrous period of cows and it is quite possible that the bullís heat detection efficiency would be less than 100 percent. Another common problem is having more cows in the breeding herd than a bull or bulls can effectively handle. There are heat detection aides and management practices that can be used to enhance summer reproduction. Identify Breeding Herd ñ Hopefully a majority of your milking herd will be pregnant by the time hot weather arrives. Ideally, the ëbreeding herdí should be grouped together to increase estrous activity and make heat detection more labor efficient. If you canít group your breeding herd, at least identify the breeders and use heat expectancy lists to assist you and your co-workers. Tail Paint/Mount Indicators ñ Being diligent about applying tail paint and/or the use of mount indicators such as Kamars will help in determining standing heat. Marker bulls can also be effective but remember their limitations during heat stress and above all consider the risk of human injury with any breeding age bull. Night Observation ñ Estrous activity is shortened and concentrated during the cooler hours of the day. During the summer heat detection at night and early morning is much more effective. Timed A. I. Programs ñ Recent advances in the use of Gonadotropin Releasing Hormone (GnRH) and Prostaglandin has allowed producers to shorten their breeding season. This can give you an advantage since heat detection is limited during hot weather. The program is known as Ovsynch and it precisely synchronizes ovulation so that most inseminations are based on time and not standing heat. This program can also help decrease days to first service since you are not waiting for a visible heat to breed cows. It does not however, replace heat detection since early heats and returns must be monitored visually. Conception Rate The next step to getting cows pregnant is conception rate. Even after a cow or heifer has been inseminated, conception rate must be considered when figuring a herdís pregnancy rate. For example, if your heat detection rate was 60% and your conception rate was 30% then your pregnancy rate (.60 * .30) would only be 18%. During periods of heat stress conception rates can be drastically reduced if a herd unable to manage the heat. That is why some dairy herds simply quit breeding during hot weather. But cows can still be successfully bred and impregnated by using the following ideas to enhance conception rates. Cow Cooling ñ The increase in core body temperature of lactating cows during hot weather has long been suspected of lowering reproductive efficiency. Cooling cows will not only help to increase fertilization rates and retain early pregnancies but also allow the ovaries to produce more viable eggs that are easier to fertilize. Use A. I.ñ It may seem crazy to use A. I. during hot weather but frozen semen is processed to meet minimum quality standards. Natural service bulls are stressed by the heat and their semen quality is suspect at best. Semen Handling ñ Proper semen thawing and handling is critical to providing the highest number of viable spermatozoa at insemination time. High ERCR Bulls ñ After each new sire run DRMS at Raleigh calculates Estimated Relative Conception Rates (ERCR) for all active A. I. bulls. A list can be retrieved from the internet at www.drms.org Routine Reproduction Checkups ñ If you are serious about getting cows pregnant in the hot weather you should maintain a routine herd health program including pregnancy palpations. Early diagnosis of pregnancy or non-pregnancy status will lower days open and improve your bottom line. Finally, the cows that you get pregnant during the upcoming hot weather periods will be back in your breeding herd next summer. Reducing these numbers is best accomplished by aggressively managing your fall and winter breeding herd to get them pregnant before hot weather begins. Also, strategically calving first calf heifers in the early fall will help to keep them breeding during cooler weather as they age into the following lactations. FEBRUARY 2000 HONOR ROLL HERDS* DAIRY COUNTY NO. COWS LBS. ECM 2X 3X ROLLING HERD AVERAGE MILK FAT PROT DOT HERITAGE DAIRY TATE 414 79.1 2X 23266 885 749 02/20 MS STATE UNIVERSITY OKTIB 184 78.8 2X 17859 696 597 02/09 BRAD BEAN AMITE 233 76.5 2X 20856 805 679 02/02 MELVIN NICHOLSON NEWTON 124 76.4 2X 22422 766 745 02/01 COASTAL PLAIN EXP.STA NEWTON 150 75.6 2X 21413 759 681 02/16 RONALD H. CLARK LINCOLN 88 74.7 2X 20951 721 692 02/14 THOMPSON BROTHERS MARSHALL 129 74.3 2X 20737 757 659 02/08 FREEMAN DAIRY PIKE 124 71.6 2X 20392 682 697 02/18 JEFCOAT & WILLIAMS DIARY JONES 70 71.6 2X 20413 673 647 02/21 N. MS BR EXP STATION MARSHALL 104 69.5 2X 19860 708 644 02/08 MACTOC FARM OKTIB 193 69.1 2X 24441 916 793 02/10 DAVID ROBINSON & SONS RANKIN 141 68.4 2X 20936 736 648 02/21 TIM WEEKS COPIAH 68 68.2 2X 21907 802 731 02/19 ROWZEE JERSEY FARM NEWTON 151 68.0 2X 17304 802 668 01/31 DIXIE DAIRY SALES CARROLL 247 67.8 2X 19291 710 616 02/21 ROWZEE JERSEY FARM NEWTON 156 67.2 2X 17397 808 674 02/20 G&B DAIRY LINCOLN 56 65.7 2X 20348 836 743 02/01 TODD & JERRY BULLOCK PIKE 111 65.2 2X 17263 620 556 02/18 J & L DAIRY WALTHALL 212 63.4 2X 20091 594 643 02/08 AL BOYD JR. WALTHALL 73 62.2 2X 20068 650 647 02/22 MILTON & TERRY JEFCOAT JONES 223 60.7 2X 21599 706 695 02/22 MAX & TAMMY STINSON WALTHALL 243 59.9 2X 18028 653 588 02/09 JAY PAUL HOOVER NOXUBEE 118 59.8 2X 18343 645 586 02/16 RAY GALLOP & SONS MONROE 78 58.3 2X 17441 580 572 02/24 J & J JERSEY JONES 13 57.7 2X 15783 688 584 02/21 Top 25 herds enrolled on supervised DHIA testing programs by test day energy corrected milk for all cows. ** ECM = (.3246 x test day milk)+(12.86 x test day lbs. fat)+(7.04 x test day lbs. protein) MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY STATEWIDE DAIRY FIELD DAY Hosted by: Conerly Farms, Inc Tylertown, Mississippi MAY 18, 2000 From Tylertown, take Hwy. 27 South approximately 8 miles and turn East (left) onto Simon Road (last road before the MS/LA state line). Follow Simon Road 2.5 miles to dairy on right. Signs will be posted.) REGISTRATION AND VIEW EXHIBITS - 8:30a.m. PROGRAM - 9:20a.m. LUNCH - 12:00p.m. TOUR PROGRAM Management and Treatment of Hairy Heel Warts (including demonstration Dr. Richard Hopper, College of Veterinary Medicine, MSU Mr. Robert Fornea, Feincorp, Professional Hoof Trimmer Suckling Versus Tube-Feeding to Provide Colostral Antibodies to Newborn Calves - MSU Data Mr. Joey Murphey, Superintendent, Coastal Plain Branch Experiment Station Day 31 of the Hundred Day Contract Dr. Bruce Beachnau, Dairy Technical Service Veterinarian, Pharmacia Upjohn Mr. Robert Pegues, Pharmacia Upjohn Monitoring Milking System Function Dr. Brooke Pace, Graduate Student, MSU Methods for Synchronizing Ovulation and Detecting Conception ñ How Effective Are They? Dr. Scott Willard, Asst. Professor, Animal & Dairy Sciences Dept., MSU Assisted by Scott Gandy, Charlotte Rose, Amy Tucker, Graduate Students, MSU Mississippi Voluntary Johneís Disease Status Program for Cattle Dr. Jim Watson, State Veterinarian, MS Department of Animal Health ***FEATURED PRESENTATION*** Mr. Bill Chitwood, Dairy Humorist Sulphur, Oklahoma Presentation Sponsored By: Farmland Industries Walthall Co. Co-op Pike Co. Co-op Kentwood Co-op Upcoming Events April 8 ñ Mississippi Holstein Show, Brookhaven, MS April 14 & 15 ñ Louisiana Holstein Sale & Show, Franklinton, LA April 15 ñ Deep South Jersey Sale, Jackson, MS May 18 ñ Statewide Dairy Field Day, Tylertown, MS June 2 ñ Louisiana/Mississippi Dairy Heifer Sale, McComb, MS March 2000 BFP Price Dr. C. W. "Bill" Herndon Dairy Economist, MSU Class I Prices Up to $14.03, Bolstered by Butter As was described in previous issues of this newsletter, the USDA implemented its provisions for Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reform on January 1, 2000. This resulted in the replacement of the Basic Formula Price (BFP) with a drastically revised system and procedure for establishing milk prices. One of the features used under Federal Order reform is the reporting of an "Advanced Class I" base milk price that will be announced for the next, or subsequent, month on or before the 23rd of each month. For example, the April Advanced Class I base milk price (@ 3.5% butterfat) was announced on March 16 and will be used to estimate the value of milk used in beverage milk products. This newsletter will report the monthly Advanced Class I price as an indicator of the direction and magnitude of changes in milk prices. The market data for late February and early March were not encouraging for the dairy industry already experiencing burgeoning milk output and plagued by low milk prices. The favorable milk prices and feed cost situation experienced in the dairy sector during 1998 and 1999 promoted marked increases in milk production which are continuing to strain the dairy market with cheese and nonfat dry milk prices mired at the government support levels. Production and inventories of cheese, butter and milk powder products continue to expand as "distressed" milk supplies are being processed into these Class III and IV products. The USDA through its Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) began purchasing processed cheese products during the last week of February, which is in addition to continuing procurements of substantial quantities of non-fortified nonfat dry milk. However, butter prices, which have increased recently and are approaching the $1.00 per pound level, are providing the only glimmer of relief to this depressed market. These excessive amounts of milk supplies are being translated into milk exports from the Southeast, including 75 to 90 truckloads of milk shipped out of Florida to states in the Northeast. The rising fuel costs are becoming another issue that milk cooperatives and processors must face when shipping these excessive supplies to dairy manufacturing plants. Most dairy market analysts are forecasting that milk prices will remain at the current very low, depressed levels through July or August of 2000. Milk prices are then expected to rise during the fall deficit months and peak in either October or November. The April Advanced Class I price (for Atlanta and Starkville) was reported at $14.03 per cwt. representing an INCREASE of 9 cents per cwt. (+0.6%) ABOVE the corresponding March price of $13.94. Surprisingly, the April 2000 Class I price is a 48 cents per cwt. (or +3.5%) HIGHER than the April 1999 Class I price of $13.55. Dairy producers should be aware that the April Class I price will be the most important price that will influence the revenues derived from the sale of their milk produced during April. Because 65 to 75 percent of Mississippi milk is utilized as Class I products, farmers will not realize any increase in revenues caused by this 9-cent increase in the April Class I price until they receive their "settlement" checks in mid-May as payment for milk sold in April 2000. Milk Production - Month after month U.S. dairy farmers are producing more and more milk from milking more cows which are making more milk output per cow. February milk production statistics indicate that national output increased an astounding 8.2% (888 million lbs. or 4.5% on a daily basis) compared to February 1999 which was generated from milking 72,000 more cows that increased output an average of 101 pounds per cow. The extra day this leap year could not come at a more inopportune time for the dairy industry already tormented by massive supplies of milk. Every one of the 20 states that USDA collects monthly production information increased milk output between February 1999 and 2000 with state-level statistics ranging from a high of 18.0% (Idaho) to a low of 3.5 (New York). Huge increases in milk production continue to be registered in the usual regions of the Southwest and West, but selected states in the Midwest are also experiencing substantial increases in milk output. Comparing February 1999 to February 2000, states reporting double-digit percentage growth in milk output were Idaho (+18.0%), New Mexico (+14.4%), California (+13.7%), and Indiana (+10.2%). Of the reporting Southern states, milk production increased in Virginia (+8.8%), Texas (+5.5%), Kentucky (+4.5%), Florida (+3.7%), and Missouri (+3.8%). The almost ideal weather conditions in the West which have sustained milk output have witnessed a reversal with excessive amounts of rain during February and March causing slight declines in milk receipts in California. Idaho and Arizona. Dairy Product Prices - The flood of "spring flush" milk supplies persists in causing dairy product prices for cheddar cheese and nonfat milk powder to languish near the CCC support price levels. Butter continues to offer a bright spot in the gloomy dairy market situation where prices have not only been surprisingly stable but have actually increased modestly during late February and early March. Cheddar cheese prices have shown very little movement and remain at or slightly above the government support levels of $1.10 and $1.085 per pound for 40# block and barrel cheddar cheese, respectively. This continues to be the situation for nonfat dry milk (NDM) which has displayed NO price movements during the past five months and remains only slightly above the government support level of $1.01. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), 40# block prices were reported at $1.11 on February 18 and have exhibited very little change over the subsequent four weeks and were recorded at $1.1125 on March 17 -- a 0.25-cent (+0.2%) increase over this period. Barrel cheddar cheese also exhibited virtually no price movements. Its product price declined 0.75 cents (-0.7%) from $1.1000 on February 18 to $1.0925 on March 17. On February 18, the Grade AA butter price was 91.00 cents per pound compared to 98.00 on March 17 -- an increase of 7.00 cents (+7.7%) per pound. Since September 1999, Grade A nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices on the CME have remained "stuck" near the government support price level of $1.0300 per pound. Ever growing amounts of excess and "distressed" milk supplies have caused the CCC to maintain its weekly procurements of non-fortified NDM and began purchasing processed cheese during the week of February 28-March 3. Between October 1 and March 17, the CCC has purchased almost 166 million pounds of non-fortified NDM and 1.7 million pounds of processed cheddar cheese. Near-term Market Outlook - The outlook for 2000 remains bleak as the dairy industry attempts to manage the current flood of raw milk supplies and growing inventories of dairy products. Milk, cheese, and milk powder prices are forecast to exhibit very little upward inclination through July or August with the Class I base milk prices in Mississippi remaining below or near the $15.00 per cwt. level. As the fall milk deficit period draws near, the normal upward trend in seasonal prices are expected with a peak for Class I milk predicted near $16.00 to $17.00 during October or November. This dismal economic situation is being further complicated by the confusion and misunderstanding surrounding the new milk pricing system implemented by the USDA under its Federal Order reform. However, it is certain that these new pricing procedures will have an effect on farm revenues and milk checks. This new pricing system and the procedure used to calculate the Class I price has been VERY positive for Mississippi and Southeastern farm milk prices during 2000. Because this procedure uses the higher of either the Class III or Class IV price to compute Class I prices, the resulting Class I prices have been more than $1.00 higher due to relatively high butter prices which increased the corresponding Class IV milk price. In other words, milk revenues received by farmers thus far during 2000 would probably have been even less (i.e. 10 to 15% less) under the "old" milk pricing system. The March Class III (which replaced the BFP) is expected remain stable and again be reported just above the $9.50 level. The CME reported that on March 17 the Class III futures contracts settlement prices were $9.55 for the March contract, $9.70 for April, $9.97 for May, and $10.92 for June. The overflow of "spring flush" milk continues to overburden the market and there is very little hope for any reasonable price increases until the hot and humid summer weather curbs these excessive milk supplies. However, recent history has painfully taught the dairy industry to NOT trust the validity of milk price forecasts. Milk prices during the past decade have been prone to be very volatile and (wildly) responsive to changes in weather conditions, forage quality and availability, feed costs, and dairy policy and programs. Number and Size Distribution of Dairy Farms A recent report published by the Market Administratorís Office in Atlanta summarizes the number and size distribution of dairy farmers who pooled their milk on the Southeast and/or the three Florida Federal Orders during 1997, 1998 and 1999. Statistics analyzed in this report were for milk pooled during the month of May during these years and attempts account for number of farms and quantity of milk produced by all dairy farmers pooling milk on these selected Federal Orders. During May 1999, 4,309 producers pooled milk on these milk orders which, on average, produced 189,357 pounds of 3.49% butterfat milk during the month. Only 123 (producing an average of 253,317 pounds) of these producers were located outside the South in Indiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia. The number of farmers and quantities of milk produced in the 10 selected states were Florida (210; averaging 1,092,524 pounds), Georgia (385; 324,791), Texas (108; 312,321), Alabama (172; 188,403), Mississippi (360; 141,909), Tennessee (735; 133,298), Louisiana (480; 132,201), Arkansas (279; 105,037), Missouri (639; 94,123) and Kentucky (815; 75,625). These 4,306 farmers produced a total of 815.4 million pounds of milk in May 1999, which is 64.4 million more than the 751.0 million pounds pooled on these four orders. A review of the state-level statistics for Mississippi reveals that during May 1999 360 dairy farmers pooled (sold) their milk on these Federal Orders and they produced a total 51.1 million pounds (141,909, on average). There were 51 (14.2% of the total) dairy farmers who produced between 60,000 and 80,000 pounds during this month that represented 7.2% of the total amount of milk produced by Mississippi dairy farmers. The 27 farmers producing in the size range of 200,000 to 250,000 for the month produced the greatest percentage of total pooled milk (11.8%). There were only 10 dairy farmers that produced more than 400,000 pounds and 35 that produced less than 40,000 pounds during this month. For comparison, there were 388 and 434 dairy farmers pooling milk on these orders during 1998 and 1997, respectively. These farmers produced on average 138,574 pounds during May 1998 and 137,599 pounds during the same month of 1997. These data demonstrates that essentially every one of the dairy farmers in Mississippi pooled their milk on these four Federal Orders. Additionally, this report reveals that the long-term trend of fewer BUT larger Mississippi dairy farms is continuing with the number of farms declining 17.1% (or 74 farms) and the average amount of milk produced on these farms increasing 3.1% (or 4,310 pounds). Finally, these statistics indicate that while each Mississippi dairy farmer has on average produced more milk -- the total amount of milk pooled by these producers has declined from 59.7 million pounds in May 1997 to 51.1 million pounds in May 1999 (or -14.4%). Southeast "Blend" Falls to $12.74 in February The Southeast Federal Order Milk Market Administrator reported the February 2000 "blend" or uniform price for milk delivered in Zone 7 of Federal Order (FO) #7 at $12.74 per cwt. for 3.5% Butterfat milk. (Please see the Mississippi map for zones where Zone 5 is minus $0.20, Zone 6, 7 and 8 are the "base" zones, Zone 9 plus $0.20, Zone 10 plus $0.30, Zone 11 plus $0.40, and Zone 12 plus $0.50 per cwt. The February "blend" price of $12.74 for the "base" zone of FO #7 represents a DECREASE of $0.08 per cwt. (-0.6%) compared to the January price of $12.84. The February 2000 blend price is $6.25 (or ñ32.9%) BELOW the February 1999 blend price of $18.99. Average butterfat test in each of the four milk class categories has a direct impact on the value of milk pooled in FO #7 and the amount of milk revenues available to be distributed to dairy farmers (but NOT reported in this newsletter). For February, average butterfat test for each milk class was Class I, 2.145%; Class II, 7.689%; Class III, 4.412%; and, Class IV, 7.319%. The February "blend" price was calculated using: (1) a "net" Class I price of $12.51 on 63.09% of the milk marketed; (2) the "net" price for Class II of $14.68 on 10.67% of the milk; (3) a "net" price of $10.42 on 15.60% of the milk used for Class III products; and, (4) the "net" Class IV price of $14.74 on 10.64% of the milk marketed. This newsletter will be publishing a "revised" map of Mississippi depicting the changes in the pricing zones which were the result of federal order reform, but this "new" map is not yet available at this time of publishing in this newsletter. Uniform or "BLEND" Price - February 2000 North Mississippi: $12.54 North Central Mississippi: $12.74 South Central Mississippi: $12.94 South Mississippi: $13.04 Coastal Mississippi: $13.14 Class I Price for April 2000 (Advanced Price) North Mississippi: $13.83 North Central Mississippi: $14.03 South Central Mississippi: $14.23 South Mississippi: $14.33 Coastal Mississippi: $14.43

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